The era of great cataclysms starts

According to researchers at National Center for Atmospheric Research, climate change is occurring according to the worst scenarios. Representatives of Russian non-governmental environmental organizations believe that rapid climate challenges require quick response. They are sure that the Russian Federation, being one of the world's major emitters, need to urgently adopt a national strategic goal for 2050: reducing emissions by at least 50% of 1990 levels for all sources and sinks.



Researchers from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) published their latest findings in Science magazine. They compare 16 forecast variants with the data of satellite observations. The scientists have used more than 20 methods to predict climate change, to choose the most accurate and reliable one. The findings show that the best are the models in which the strength of greenhouse effect and its impact on the climate is particularly significant, those in which global warming develops most intensively.

As follows from the report, by the year 2100 the world's average temperature could rise by 4.5 degrees. As a result, we can expect rising sea levels, devastating hurricanes and floods. U.S. scientists believe that the earth is entering the epoch of great cataclisms. Thus, the Sandy hurricane that attacked the U.S. East Coast is just some warming up in the whole sequence of natural disasters. In the coming decades, scientists say we can expect much more unpleasant consequences of global warming. Observations in the Arctic largely confirm the predictions that climatologists make. The planet is really hotter now than previously expected. From 1998 to 2011, the average temperature at the North Pole rose by a tenth of a degree, which is by 0.04 more than one might expect. From the end of the 19th century, the temperature rise made three quarters of a degree.

In addition, over the last thirty years, more than 2 million square kilometers of sea ice in this area was lost due to melting. Scientists project that the entire Arctic could stay with virtually no ice cap by 2100. Some scholars have their own opinion on this subject, they believe that this will happen much sooner. The less sea ice remains on the surface of the northern seas, the more likely is the water temperature rise. At the north-eastern part of the United States, the highest water temperature in the history of the study of the region is recorded.

Russia is a northern country, and future climate changes will considerably influence it. Representative of Russian non-governmental environmental organizations are sure that rapid climate challenges require quick response. In their position adopted in November 2012 at the national conference of the Russian Social Ecological Union "Public participation in development of civil dialogue on climate change and sustainable energy," they urge the President and the Government of the Russian Federation to implement additional and immediate actions needed to effectively implement international and national climate and energy policies.

According to the environmentalists, Russia shall adopt the national strategic goal for 2050: to reduce emissions by at least 50% of the 1990 level, totally for all sources and sinks, and to strive for 80% reduction. In addition, it is important to adopt a national goal for 2020: to keep the growth of GHG emissions below 75% of the 1990 baseline level (without account for absorption by forests) and to determine the date of stopping the emissions growth, consistent with achieving the stated objective of the national 40% reduction in energy intensity over 2007-2020.

Only action by all states of the world can reduce the human impact on the environment and the rate of catastrophic climate change on the planet.